1. Everyone’s Watching Tech Earnings… But Commodities Just Flashed Green
While the market obsessed over Meta and Alphabet earnings, natural gas quietly posted its strongest weekly performance since March — up 8.4%. The driver? A triple whammy of:
Unusually high summer heat in the South
Flattening U.S. production
EU restocking ahead of a volatile winter forecast
Actionable Take:
Watch $BOIL (leveraged nat gas ETF) or consider laddering into long-dated call spreads on producers like Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Southwestern (SWN). Volatility is still underpriced.
2. TLT’s Bounce Isn’t Random — The Bond Market Smells a Slowdown
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) has rebounded nearly 3.5% this week — even as CPI came in hot. Why? Institutional desks are front-running a potential Q4 rate cut despite Powell’s tough talk.
Key signs:
SOFR futures are now pricing in 2 cuts by March 2026
Freight shipment volumes are down 5% YoY, suggesting soft demand
Actionable Take:
Buy-write strategies on TLT or look at October/November long call diagonals. If growth slows and inflation dips, bond prices could rip.
3. Bitcoin Is Stalling — and Ethereum’s Stealing the Spotlight
Bitcoin dominance just slipped below 49.5% — a signal that traders are rotating into altcoins. Leading the charge? Ethereum, Solana, and TON — all up significantly this week. What’s driving it:
Momentum building behind the Ethereum spot ETF
Rising demand for Layer 1s that offer staking yield or infrastructure utility
Institutional appetite expanding beyond just BTC
Actionable Take:
Ethereum is regaining its narrative. Look at ETH call spreads into the ETF decision window or ETH/SOL ratio longs if you’re playing relative strength. Also watch LDO and PYTH — infrastructure plays with tailwind exposure to this alt rotation.
Fast Movers: Worth a Look
United Rentals (URI): quietly posted blowout rental demand in mining/metals sector. A stealth bet on the infrastructure + commodities boom.
ARKX (Space ETF): Up 7% on defense + Starlink deal rumors. Speculative, but real momentum.
BHP + Rio Tinto: both added to by Norges Bank and CPP. Follow the big boys.
Quote of the Week
“In a crowded trade, profits come not from the thesis — but from the exit.”
That’s your edge for today.
Make money while others are distracted.
— Profit Wire Team